Prognostic Risk Modelling to Enable Shared Optimal Decision Making in Medicine

1.    Develop an App containing updatable observational data from cases compiled by a central research institute.

2.    App can run Live Prognostic risk models (Based on Multivariable Regression Models) developed to predict various outcomes for a given patient.

3.    Compare potential changes for various outcomes of care based on planned changes in treatment and modifiable risk factors, live for each patient presenting in front of the doctor

4.    Doctor does all this in front of the patient with shared decision-making between treating team and patient, patient’s family and carers.

5.    Prognostic risk models developed each have their own reliability index to measure strength of index.

6.    The Standardised Mean Residual is a reliability index I developed that doesn’t depend is on sample size nor does it assume the axioms of probability. 

7.    As the patient continues care with the treating team and the patient’s variables change this process is iteratively repeated which may lead to treatment changes or changes in goals for modifiable risk factors.

This process will achieve evidence-based outcomes desired by both the patient and the treating team.

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